By Staff Writer
Today’s US jobs data surprised to the upside, sparking sharp moves across markets.
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print came in at +130K versus 70K expected, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%, giving the headline a “strong labour market” feel at first glance.
The immediate market reaction was classic. The US dollar rallied quickly, supported by a jump in yields as traders repriced the outlook for rate cuts. A stronger jobs number makes it harder to argue for easing, so markets trimmed expectations for 2026 cuts, with the June meeting in focus.
The tone shifted somewhat as traders digested the details. A -856K revision to 2025 data took a lot of shine off the headline, effectively removing a large chunk of previously reported job creation. That helped cool the initial dollar enthusiasm and introduced a sense that the market may have overreacted to the first number.
Adding another layer, hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month, which doesn’t make the Fed’s job any easier.
Strong wage growth can keep inflation pressure alive, making it difficult to justify near-term cuts — especially for a new Fed Chair who will be sensitive to credibility.
That said, some traders are flagging potential seasonality around early-year hiring and pay adjustments, which is why the next report could be even more important than this one.
